STATISTICALLY CHALLENGED: IDAHO-NEVADA GAME REWIND

by Pat Hosier and Shane Smith

SilverandBlueSports.com Contributors

NEVADA OFFENSE VS. IDAHO

I cannot remember the last time I was so happy to be wrong.  Before the season started there was a Silver and Blue Sports debate on what to expect from QB Colin Kaepernick as a rusher.  I estimated that he’d get 600-700 yards with his big gains coming from scrambles. It seemed logical.  After all, here are his rushing stats from the final 3 games of last season:

These three games featured the lowest yards per carry of the season for Kaepernick and each successive team did a better job of slowing him down.

Following Boise State’s lead, opponents had figured out how to stop Kap’s running.  That didn’t mean the Pistol Offense would no longer be effective. After all, those were three bowl bound teams and Nevada still scored a combined 104 points in those three games.  And while they went 1-2 they were in position to go 3-0 with a little better execution. But I had forgotten something very important. Coach Chris Ault knows offense better than most, and he wasn’t going to let opposing defensive coordinators have the final say in this matter.  Kaepernick now has 87 carries for 691 yards and 7 touchdowns. With 5 games left on the schedule he’s already accomplished what I thought would take all season.  He needs to average only 61.8 yards per game (not including a bowl game) to reach 1,000 yards rushing for the second consecutive season.  He’s also averaging almost a full yard per carry more than last season. 

Vai Taua is also on pace to rush for over 1,000 yards (even though he missed two complete games) and Lippincott (with no carries versus Notre Dame) is on pace for 893 yards rushing.  Each of them is averaging .6 yards per carry more than last season.

S4E: The numbers are astounding, especially when you take into account that the offense didn’t do very much in the first two or three games.  As I’ve stated before, every team that is high up in the stats has a bad game or two and a couple of monster games.  Here’s to the monster games continuing.

Running Game: Grade  A+

I left out the “Team” carries, 3 carries for -3 yards, as they were kneel downs at the end of the 1^st and 2^nd halves.

The running game featured a number of formations, motions, reverses, fakes, misdirection and new reads for the QB that have revised everything I expected from the Pistol coming into the season.  Not just the running game but the passing as well. The two back sets have added a new dimension and new problems for opposing defenses.  Many of Kaepernick’s yards came on scrambles, but his longest run for a TD, as in the USU game, came on the revised read-option with Kap reading the backside OLB instead of the DE.  The OLB tucked in behind the DE instead of staying outside and Kap was gone. Long gone.

Taua had another great game and the speed sweep to Green, along with the reverse to Wellington, were both huge plays.  Wellington has now run that sweep 3 times for an average of 30.3 yards and it’s resulted in 2 first downs and a TD.

None of this would be possible without great blocking from the OL, but it’s the blocking of the TEs, WRs and RBs that turn 6 yard gains into game changing TDs. The entire team has bought into the game plan and it shows.

It’s impossible to give the rushing attack a grade of less than A+, but it wasn’t perfect and there are still some reasons for concern.  There were two fumbles (one inside Idaho’s 5 yard line) though we lost neither one.  Teams like Hawaii and Boise are notorious for stripping ball carriers and they must improve at holding on to the ball.  Also, outside of Taua’s 89 yard run, the Idaho defense did a good job in slowing the RBs.  Again, leaving out that TD, Taua and Lipp had 23 carries for 81 yards and a 3.5 yard average.  Idaho does have a good run defense, but that’s not the kind of numbers we expect from those two proven backs.

S4E: The running game is so fun to watch that there is only one thing I can’t wait to see this year…I think this offense has the potential to have 6 or more different players score a rushing touchdown in the same game.  Do I ask too much?

The Passing Game: Grade A

The Idaho game was one of the more efficient passing games for the Pack this season.  Statistically it wasn’t as good as versus LTU (and UNLV doesn’t count they were so bad) but I think Kaepernick threw the ball better. The yards per attempt number is the best of the season not counting UNLV.  There were no interceptions and Colin displayed better touch on some of his passes.  Brandon Wimberly was again the leading receiver.  Session and Wellington combined for only 3 receptions and I’d like to see these receivers more involved in the offense. Twice Wellington was open on a deep route over the middle. Once Kaepernick overthrew him and the second time, on 4^th and 7, Kap pulled the ball down and ran for a TD. 

The biggest surprise from the passing game this season has been the lack of production from Chris Wellington. He’s the fastest and most experienced of the receivers and should benefit the most from safeties cheating up to stop the run, but he’s still not found his niche in the offense.  Coach Ault has stated that junior Malcolm Shepherd and sophomore Shane Anderson will both see more playing time this week versus Hawaii.  With the relative lack of production from Wellington one has to wonder if he’ll be the player losing minutes.

Virgil Green had only one reception, but it was a beautiful 44 yard touchdown strike. More and more he’s becoming a deep threat rather than a possession receiver like most tight ends in the past.

S4E: I’m not going to dog on anyone in particular, but when it comes to passing routes, it sure seems that the receivers aren’t always going all out.  Whether they expect Kaep to just run or what, I don’t know, but I can think of a few balls that Colin “overthrew” where I thought the receiver could have got there with just a little more effort earlier in the route.  That being said, Kaep seems to be hitting them more frequently than he has in the past.

Offensive Special Teams (Returns, Field Goals and Extra Points): Overall Grade B

Three kickoffs returned; all for at least 25 yards, none for more than 30 yards. No turnovers.  Grade: B

Zero returns on 4 punts but no touchbacks or fair catches.  One Idaho punt sailed with the wind over the returner’s head and was downed inside the 20. Another shorter punt was too short for the returner and he properly waived off his blockers but one of them let the punt hit his body. Luckily it bounced out of bounds. Scary.  Grade: C-

Ricky Drake was 10 for 10 on extra points.  Drake is now 29 of 31 on extra points for a much improved 94% and seems to be getting comfortable. Grade: A

S4E:  The Drake is good.

SiS: Love the Drake.

NEVADA DEFENSE VS. IDAHO

As punishment for being busy the past couple of weeks, SiS has decreed that I am in charge of reviewing the Nevada defense during the Idaho game this past week. One could argue that this was up there with the Notre Dame game in terms of poor defense.  Not only did the Pack defense give up the most points they have given up all year, but there are several other stats that were pretty bad as well. Is there any good that can be gleaned from allowing the Idaho Vandals 45 points?  Well, let’s get to it and dig into the stats to see what we can see.

Rushing Defense: B+

If the Pack offense had not been rolling in this one, I’m not convinced the Pack rushing defense would have held up against Idaho’s backs.  This was the second fewest rushing attempts for the Vandals all year and in terms of yards allowed and ypc allowed, this game was right in the middle for Nevada’s defense so far this season.  Good, but not great.

Nevada only gave up 90 yards on 25 carries with an average of 3.6 ypc.  That’s good defense, and almost great defense, but it wasn’t enough to get a top grade from me. Giving up the big play, with 59 of those yards and a touchdown coming on one play is something this defense still hasn’t corrected.  The Vandals actually gained 122 yards, but lost 30 yards on 5 sacks and two yards somewhere else, probably the fumbled snap.  Realistically, the Nevada defense gave up 122 yards on 19 carries, which was 6.4 ypc.  That’s not so good.  Swinging things back in the Pack’s favor, removing the 59 yd carry, the Pack allowed 63 yards on 18 carries for 3.5 ypc.  I wanted to give an A or an A-, but I just couldn’t do it.

Fortunately, the Pack got a lead and Idaho had no choice but to pass to try to stay in the game and stop the clock as much as possible.  That being said, this was still an above average performance by the rush defense against a team that, coming into the game, wanted to run the ball and control the clock.  The next true running defense test will be against Fresno State at home.  There’s always room for improvement and while this week was good, that improvement needs to happen before the game against the Bulldogs thus a grade of B+ against the Vandals.

SiS: A B+ is fair, but other than the Jackson run I thought the rushing defense performed better than the game total stats indicate.  Early in the game the Idaho backs were getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage.  Check out the first quarter rushing stats for Idaho:

Once Idaho established the pass they were able to run for a better average. But it was never good enough to have much effect on the game even though the safeties had more important things to do than key on running backs.

Passing Defense: Z (Z’s a grade right?)

Wait a second; Idaho only threw the ball 33 times?  How did that happen?  Oh yeah, they threw it up deep and caught almost everything.  Wait a second; if Idaho caught almost everything, how did they only manage a 66.7% completion percentage?  It’s just sad that I used the word “only” in that last question.  Idaho’s completion percentage was the second worst allowed by Nevada all year, as was the 12.2 yards per attempt, and the passer rating of 213.44.  404 yards and 5 touchdowns were both the worst given up by the Pack all year.  It was ugly.

In the NFL, sack yards go on the passing yardage stats.  It doesn’t change the fact that the Nevada defensive backs just didn’t make plays.  In an effort to rub some sunshine on an otherwise extremely poor performance, I’m going to add in the 5 sacks and -30 yards and say that Nevada gave up 22 completions on 38 passing plays for a 57.9% success rate and 374 yards.  There, doesn’t that make you feel better?  No?  Me either.  I realize that Idaho was behind and had to throw to stay in the game and stop the clock, but I stand by my grade of Z and I’m not backing down on that.

SiS: Z is reasonable for the second quarter.  I’d give no worse than a C- for the rest of the game. In the second quarter Enderle completed 3 of 5 passes for 177 yards and Idaho scored 24 points including the run by Jackson.  In two of the drives he was 3 for 3 for 2 TDs and 177 yards. That quarter changed the game for a while. Sure Idaho scored 14pts in the second quarter and a garbage-time TD in the 4^th quarter, but the defense did a much better job slowing them down including the interception by Bethea and a forced fumble that both led to Nevada touchdowns.

Defensive Special Teams: C

Punting—F: Two punts for an average of 23.5 yards isn’t going to get it done.  I don’t care that both punts were into the wind, the 35 yard punt gave the Idaho offense the ball on their own 41 and Idaho took advantage of the field position by scoring a touchdown on the very next play.  The 12-yard shank led directly to the 54-yard field goal as the defense actually stood up and held Idaho to a 3 and out…just imagine if the punt had gone another 10 yards.

Kickoffs—A-: Eleven kickoffs and six touchbacks are pretty impressive.  The kickoffs deep to the corner that Drake puts out there are my favorites.  I could do without the short pop-ups, but if the coaches are telling him to do it, he’s putting it on the money every time.  Did I mention I like those kicks to the corner?  Those almost always result in a big play by the coverage team and terrible field position for the opposing team.  Speaking of the coverage team, how about that hit by Duke Williams where the whole stadium made the “oh face”?