STATISTICALLY CHALLENGED: HAWAII-NEVADA GAME REVIEW

by Pat Hosier and Shane Smith

SilverandBlueSports.com Contributors

Nevada Offense

Thirty-one points isn’t quite as gaudy as many of us were expecting against Hawaii, however, it was enough to get the job done against the Warriors.  Nevada was surprisingly efficient in this game, even though the Pack didn’t put up a huge point total, and overall, it was a better offensive performance than it showed on the scoreboard.

Nevada Rushing Offense: B+

How spoiled are Nevada fans this year?  Those numbers don’t seem gaudy and in fact, seem downright pedestrian when you’re used to a team average of 7.11 ypc and over 3 rushing tds per game on the season.  To put those numbers in perspective, 312 yds total rushing is ~10 yards more than the 2^nd place rushing team in the nation, Georgia Tech, averages per game.   The “paltry” 6.4 ypc is  ~0.4 yards better than the 2^nd best ypc team in the country, UAB.

In other words, yes, the team performed below expectations based on what they have done so far this year, but it wasn’t terrible and was better than any other team not named Nevada has done on average so far this year.  Louisiana Tech had more rushing yards against the Warriors, but Nevada had more ypc against the Warriors.

So, if the performance was so good, why the B+?  Nevada put up 97.5% of their average total rushing yards coming into this game, so that’s good enough for an A.  However, the Pack’s 6.4 ypc was only good for 88.5% of their ypc coming in, good for a B+, and scoring only two touchdowns on the ground is 60.9% of the average coming in.  Average those scores, and you only get 82.3%, which would normally be a B- in my book.  Taking into account that this was the #1 ypc allowed by Hawaii and the #2 total rushing yards, I’m comfortable moving the grade up to a B+.

Nevada Passing Offense: B+

Nevada’s passing offense isn’t going to keep up with the rushing offense, but they hit almost all their averages coming into this game.  Coming into the game, Nevada was averaging 185.4 yds/gm.  Kaep was averaging 7.4 yds/att prior to this game, and averaged 8.8 yds/att against the Warriors.  The Pack had been averaging less than 2 passing tds/gm, and getting 2 in the passing game exceeded expectations.  There were some fantastic throws and catches in this game.

Both of the touchdowns were just great plays.  On the first, it was a beautifully set up screen pass to Taua on 1^st and 20 from the Hawaii 30 yard line, and Taua made several people miss while cutting back across the field where the receivers had a wall set up.  It was a tremendous play call and fabulous execution by the team across the board.  On the second passing touchdown, it was a 2^nd and 8.  Hawaii blitzed, and the line and Lippincott picked it up beautifully, giving Colin enough time to look deep and for Session to get just a little separation from his man.  The ball was thrown perfectly and Session made a tremendous grab.  Both of those plays show how dangerous this team can really be if everyone on the team does their job.

I wanted to give an A or A-, but there were a couple of things that kept me from doing so.  First, there were two dropped passes.  The first was by Virgil Green on a 2^nd and 11 that would have went for at least 5 or 6 and probably more given the space in front of him.  The Pack ended up not converting 3^rd down and having to punt.  The second dropped pass was by Brandon Wimberly on a 2^nd and 9 and would have gone for at least 5 as well.  The Pack threw incomplete on the subsequent 3^rd and 4^th downs and turned the ball over to the Warriors on downs.  That brings up the second point as to why I didn’t give an A, completion percentage.  Kaepernick’s 57.1% just wasn’t quite good enough.  It was still a good performance.  The Pack was only 3 for 11 on 3^rd down and the majority of the failures were on the passing game.  There were a couple of smart throw-aways in there, and yes, if those dropped balls were caught, I wouldn’t be complaining, and I suppose I’m not really complaining so much as saying that it wasn’t a performance deserving of an A.  It was still a good performance overall.

SiS:  I too thought the passing game was not as good as the stats indicate. It seems strange to complain when the passer rating is a health 162.2, but I’m still waiting for that vertical passing game to become a feature.  Kaepernick seems hesitant to throw deep, and that’s so out of character.  I saw several plays where receivers got behind the safeties. One resulted in Sessions TD, one was overthrown and the others were ignored. They may not have been the proper read, but the receivers are getting open deep downfield. I hope the coaches start taking advantage of it.

That catch over the middle by Wimberly was amazing, but, as coach Ault said at the QB Club luncheon, “He probably shouldn’t have thrown that ball.  I’m not going to get on him about it though.  What a great play”

Finally, the offensive penalties were a bit disturbing.  After checking the play by play I found that the Pack was able to convert first downs after hurting themselves, but that doesn’t take into account the yardage lost on the flagged play itself. There were some healthy gains that were negated by errors on the offense.

Nevada Special Teams (offense only):C

Punt Return team:  D-

Vai Taua fumbled a punt and turned it over to Hawaii and the team had negative punt return yardage.  I don’t think Nevada was putting exceptional pressure on the punter, but he did only average 26 yds/punt for Hawaii, so I upgraded the punt return team’s grade to a D-

Kickoff Return team: A

Three things stood out to me in this game when it comes to kickoff returns.  First, Hawaii’s kicker was line driving it in order to get it deeper, and for the most part it worked as Ball only attempted to return one kickoff.  Second, Ball is such a weapon, that he has the green light to bring it out from 5 yards deep and when he did so, he put together a 35 yd return.   Third, Ball is such a weapon that Hawaii wouldn’t kick it to him after the offsides penalty that forced them to kick it again. Ball is 13^th nationally in kickoff returns and is only 0.16 yards behind Livas at La. Tech.  In other words, Mike Ball is a stud and teams are scared of him touching the ball.

SiS: More Mike Ball!  I don’t know how they can get him in the game, but please find a way to do so.

Extra points and field goals: A

Perfection.  Can’t ask for much better than that.

The Nevada Defense:

Those first two drives were torture:  9 plays for 149 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The second drive was one play where a missed tackle resulted in a 15 yard pass becoming a 71 yard touchdown.  It’s almost become routine.  But while the defense did a lot of bending, they made big plays and doubled their interception total for the season. They also didn’t kill themselves with errors as Hawaii received only one first down by penalty.

Fun stat: Duke Williams was the team’s leading tackler.

S4E:  The old lady in the wheelchair behind me seemingly had an orgasm every time Duke’s name got called.  She had a great time Saturday.

Nevada Rushing Defense: C+

It could have been better. It could have been worse.  It was Hawaii’s best yards per carry average of the season and their second best total yards rushing.  But, Nevada did a lot of things with the defense that might have limited their ability to totally shut down the Hawaii running attack.  They sometimes played a smaller defensive line, often a three man line and they dropped safeties into deep zone coverage.  Hawaii took advantage of these changes to post some good runs, but they didn’t break any long ones.  They scored no rushing TDs and they didn’t control the game with their running to any measurable extent.  A few sacks would have lowered the average and total yards, but the Hawaii offensive line did a good job protecting the shifty Moniz and he had some very close calls throughout the game as Nevada couldn’t seem to get a solid grasp on the Warrior QB.

S4E:  I noticed that Nevada went back to the base defense as soon as Hawaii got inside the 20 and on short yardage downs, and Hawaii was not able to run on those downs.

Nevada Passing Defense: C+

Moniz had a passer rating of 135.3.  Only UNLV and LaTech had worse passer ratings versus the Pack.  The deciding factor was the interceptions, but the team only surrendered one completion of more than 23 yards.  That one long completion was not from a deep pass, so it appears some adjustments have been made and that, for this game at least, they worked. 

The Hawaii passing attack has long given the Pack fits. Coach Ault stated that they have the most sophisticated passing attack in the WAC bar none.  Moniz’s passer rating was the lowest of any Hawaii quarterback that has faced the Pack in at least 6 years and that has to be considered a success, even in a down year for the Warriors.

S4E:  The yardage numbers alone aren’t that great, but it was the ability to step up and make plays when they were needed in this game that was the real key for the Nevada defense.  Hawaii was only 4 of 11 on third down conversions and 0 of 2 on 4^th down conversions.

Defensive Special Teams:  B+

Kickoffs: B-

Ricky Drake is one of the top kickoff men in the country. Unfortunately he did kick one out of bounds, but he had one touchback and put the ball high and deep. Unfortunately that leads to…

Kick Coverage: C

Hawaii had 4 returns for an average of 31.7 yards each.  Still the longest return was only 38 yards. It wasn’t as good as we’ve come to expect this year, but the average starting position was still inside the 25 yard line.

Punting: A

Brad Langley had one of his better days punting.   5 punts, 42.8 yard average, 2 touchbacks, 2 inside the 20 and one returned for -3 yards.  One was downed inside the 5.

Punt Coverage: A+

One punt downed inside the 5 yard line and 1 return for negative yardage is a good day’s work.

S4E: Langley showed up this week and was integral to the success of the team in this game.  I hope it continues.  Ault’s post game press conference made it seem like they were going to put even more focus on special teams, and he said they are already spending more time on them than they ever have since he was a coach.  I think it’s only a matter of time until all of the special teams parts come together and have a good game at the same time.